Viv Grigg, Nov 2005[1]

(There has been a great deal of inaccurate media statements about the size of the church in New Zealand, and even academic papers that imply the church is in great decline.  This is certainly not true in Auckland.  This set of estimates and analysis is put out publicly as a work in progress, after several years of updating and cross-checking data, to shed some light on these figures. 
Disclaimer: the following can only be estimates based on both accurate data from some church offices or research papers, and estimates from a lot of missing data.
Help is needed to update data.  This is a great opportunity for student assignments. Click here to see some of the projects needed)

The Growth of Revival

Significant in both the growth of Pentecostalism and of the Evangelical church in Auckland has been a national revival movement, the charismatic renewal, which has touched most of New Zealand’s churches and denominations^[2] over the last thirty years.^[3] This revival has built on earlier revival movements^[4] and the Pentecostal denominations spawned by them.^[5] I contend that the agent for transformation in Auckland is the fruit of this revival. Thus, before expanding the theology of revival, I will examine the size of the committed core of the church in Auckland, diverse futures of the Auckland church, the significance of charismatic and Pentecostal growth and from these, the potential workforce for transformation.

The Size of the Committed Core

Assessing the impact of revival on the city requires comparison between Spirit-filled church and the size of the city. What is the size of the Christian community, which is the cradle of the charismatic Evangelical and Pentecostal sectors of the church?

Over four years, I collated statistics on the nature, and physical locations (photographing many and mapping them) of congregations in greater Auckland, significant at 1084 congregations,[6] including 297 separate ethnic congregations, (apart from ethnic fellowships in existing Pakeha congregations, bringing the total to 350+, as of 1998 (Fig. 1)).

: Denominational Distribution of Congregations in Auckland

To examine commitment, I needed to consider two issues: the committed core and among them the second commitment to be cultural change agents. Webster and Perry’s study (1989), showed a high correlation between weekly attendance and a frequent sense of spiritual presence, concluding that weekly attendance was the best indicator of “religiosity” or as others call it, “the committed core”, “those who are practising believers, not simply adherents”.

I engaged in pursuing this question with some reluctance because past experience had shown me, that once one puts a figure out there for such a comprehensive analysis, someone will disagree.  However, since a number of experts had convinced the church leaders that only 10% of New Zealand attended church on Sunday, and I knew from the above analysis that it was much more than that, it seemed important to gather all the available research and try to throw light on the issue as much as is possible, without doing a nation-wide analysis of some significance, way beyond the resources I can muster.  There are ways whereby these figures can be compared from different research studies to enable triangulation.  For example surveys of those who say they attend church can be compared with studies of denominational attendance statistics.  Trends that people are observing indicate what final charts should look like.  Comparison of similar studies over time increase the accuracy of the measurements.

So how many Aucklanders attend church weekly? We can look first at New Zealand as a whole.

In many ways, Christendom never quite got here.  Historian A. R. Grigg^[7] notes that:

The 1881 Census showed that approximately only twenty percent of the population attended church.  It is probable that, rather than people drifting away from the church, they had never really been attached to it or been part of it.  Most of New Zealand’s citizens were lower class emigrants from Great Britain, where their contact with the church was probably minimal in the light of the 1851 census (1981:138-139).

NZ historian Sinclair (1959), mentions a maximum of 30% church attendance (among Pakeha?).  Webster summarizes various studies:

The following results of surveys and estimated figures[8] in Fig. 2 compare the percentage of total NZ population of “high participation” Christians (regular 2-3 times per month and weekly attendance), over the years from 1983 to 2005.^[9]  

·         Those who say they attend church weekly fall consistently between 10 - 16% in New Zealand every Sunday.

·         Those who attend 2-3 times per month, plus those attending weekly (the committed core for the purposes of this study) fall consistently between 17% and 19% throughout this period.

·         Those who attend at least monthly fall within a range of 20-24%..

: Surveys of Percentage of New Zealanders Regularly Attending Church

Fig. 2 shows results of various surveys[10] and analyses of those who seek to attend church regularly from the 1980’s to the present. Decline is not evident. The figures for “greater than once per month” are too variable to constitute a trend but cluster between 19.5% and 24%. Regular attendance, greater than 2-3 times a month, including weekly (the committed core) is consistent between 17-19%. Regular weekly attendance is between 10% to 16%.  

My estimate from reviewing these figures, is that between 17-19%^[11] of the population or between 182,000 and 203,000 Auckland people sought to be regular attendees at churches weekly or 2-3 times per month), from a population of 1,068,642 (1996 Census, Auckland Regional Council). After excluding the larger churches of over 1000, this is an average of 160-170 attendees per congregation (or considering absences, around 100-110 weekly)^[12] to which can be added irregular attendees (total 19-24% monthly or more, 40% at least annually).^[13] Peter Lineham, in correspondence^[14] concludes that in attendance, ‘probably we still sit at around 12-15% weekly (bad to good Sundays), 19-21% monthly or more, 40% at least annually, to regular services.’

Significance: Charismatic Evangelical / Pentecostal Growth

Given the expansion of these groups within the womb of this wider Christian church, what is the size of the whole group under study? How significant is the Evangelical/ Pentecostal movement within New Zealand? Is it significant in numerical terms? Is there dynamism of

2: Church Attendance Every Sunday in New Zealand by Major Type of Christianity

: Weekly Attendances by Denomination

an expanding movement? Is it significant in terms of internal strength? Could these movements take centre stage in the next decade as interpreters of the break-up of Western civilisation and emergence of the civilisation of the new global city?

Unlike my analysis above on numbers of congregations and ethnic congregations, I cannot work from primary data on this, but will seek to make sense of existing surveys. The significance of size analysis is done at a national level, with some indications (Fig. 3) that figures for Auckland will be slightly higher because of the large number of ethnic churches.

Significant growth has occurred among mainline Evangelicals, which I have included as estimates in Fig. 3. Evangelical Protestants can conservatively be rated as 40% of Anglican and Presbyterian denominations (or 60% of those who attend church regularly weekly),^[20] 40% of Methodist^[21], almost all of the Salvation Army, Church of Christ, Nazarene, Reformed, Baptist, Brethren and Pentecostal denominations and most of the independent congregations.

Within all this, the size of the charismatic, Evangelical and Pentecostal clustering has grown from 5% to 8% of the population over fifteen years (see Fig. 2). This growth is linked by most leaders to revival and the charismatic movement over these last forty years.

This clustering is now dramatically larger than the traditional liberal wing of the Protestant church (down from 2.3% to 0.8% of the population attending weekly). Catholic decrease is less rapid but significant, with an upturn in Auckland due to new ethnic congregations in the last eight years (6.14% (Lineham, 1982), my analysis of 5.2% in 1985 to 3.2% in 2001).[22] Some large sectors are being lost to Christianity and others are being gained, but the overall total percentage remains nearly constant and slightly increasing from 1986 to 2001.

How much is conversion of those of non-churched background? Kevin Ward in analysis of some growing churches in Christchurch, discovered that from 2.7% to 4.0% came from a non-churched background (2001: 2). The rest had originated from other churches and 33% and 38% of the Baptist and Pentecostal churches examined originated from mainline churches. Decades ago, I studied Pentecost’s thesis on receptivity (c1979). It is clear that positive social, economic or political change makes people more receptive. Thus, we would expect much higher conversion figures in Auckland since it is experiencing much greater migrant growth. This is born out in the Baptist and Catholic graphs in Fig. 3.

Yet such definitions are too strict. In the Church Life Survey, 30% in some denominations prefer to call themselves moderate, neither liberal nor evangelical nor Pentecostal in style. I have mentioned the non-institutional, mystical, emergent church elements. There are numbers who prefer in the census to simply call themselves Christian. These are represented in Fig. 2 at the bottom within Christian (other, not defined, sects). Peter Lineham ponders,

Diverse Futures of the Auckland Church

So will these percentages increase or decrease? The expectation by mainline theologians and by secularist leaders is of decrease. As the committed core of Christians has decreased 5-10% (from in the 20% ranges in the 19^th century, with the maximum attendance 29.8% in 1894)[24] to approx 13-15% seeking to attend church each Sunday (and higher in Auckland (See Heylen poll,  Richardson, 2004)), I expect a similar sustained or slowly increasing future presence. On the other hand, the rapid loss of children in Sunday School indicates a probable dramatic decline could be expected. In 1986, there were 200,000 children in mainline church Sunday Schools every week. By 1998, it was down to 19,000 (Dickie, 1997).

But what if revival synergies continue to reoccur? The ministry of Whitefield at a time of great moral depravity in England swung similar decline around. Synergistic revival movements fed by migration streams in the US led to decadally increasing percentages.^[25] The Naga revival in a cohesive tribal people-movement led to over 90% conversion to Christianity, sustained until invasion by the Indian army in the last decades.

We can interpret these dynamics by utilising four future streams of religiosity among New Zealand Christians, identified by Webster and Perry (1989:52) as possible categories, with the addition of a non-Christian religious category.

A Secular Future?

Is the future secularist? While modernist liberal theology among Presbyterians in New Zealand, influenced by Prof Lloyd Geering, foresaw primarily a secular future, others see it as temporary state of affairs. Secularity has limited resources and provides no raison d’être, which religious belief does (Stark & Bainbridge, 1985:421). Sociologists, along with these theologians, predicted the loss of religion, only to be surprised by its resurgence in both fundamentalist and experiential modes (Berger, 1999). On the other hand, Bryan Wilson, a sociologist of religion in the Weberian tradition, sees such modern religion as being unable to challenge the dominant ethos, but rather as providing an enclave of meaning and significance to individuals in a world of machines, managers and bureaucrats. They “are not so much the progenitors of a counterculture, as random anti-cultural assertions” (1976:110).

Crucial as the secularisation debate is,[27] clearly secularisation of belief has caused an exit from the institutional church. Significant secularisation of the committed core in the liberal sector of the Protestant church exists, that has embraced modernist rationalist or secular theology, with concomitant loss of foundational beliefs.[28] For example, in the largely liberal Presbyterian denomination in Auckland, attendance reduced by 27% from 7900 to 5800 in ten years (Holland, 1996). That involves a lot of pain.

Urbanism and Loss of Faith

Secularism is usually considered one aspect of a wider phenomenon, urbanism.[29] In the present urban context of high mobility, unless they are in an older suburban context, urban pastors must replace about a fifth to a quarter of their flock each year just to maintain their present size. Churches fixed in older structures and rituals generally cannot cope with the speed and level of change needed. They tend to retrench into older ways, particularly as congregations age. Webster and Perry’s early analysis of the future of the church, was of an ageing church: “This remnant is ageing and the congregation diminishing” (1989:49). This is certainly true of the mainline denominations analyzed by the Church Life Survey (Brookes & Curnow, 1998). I suggest the correlation is not with urbanisation but with the speed of cultural change. Internal denominational and contextual factors affect the emptying of churches: terminal illness of denominational structures through traditionalism; theologies denying biblical authority; some training models of pastoral leadership based primarily on academics and ignoring skills and spiritual gifting criteria; or failure to come to terms with ethnic change in the community among others (see Natural Church Growth analyses in Shwartz, 1996). Some of these factors contribute to the slow decline of Catholic Church attendance till 1996 (now reversed, at least in Auckland, by ethnic growth) and rapid decline of the liberal sector in mainline churches.

But the overall reality is much different to Webster and Perry’s and Brookes and Curnow’s “age and decline” opinions, so popular with the journalists. Unfortunately, most Pentecostal, fundamentalist and ethnic churches were not on the list of churches contacted for the Church Life Survey — at least 50% of the Auckland churches. Thus the research sustained the myth that the church is declining.^[30] More comprehensive statistics, which include these churches (Dickie, 1997, 1996), show reasonable consistency of sustained Christianity across ages. There are variations across denominations: fewer youth and increasing age in the mainline denominations; a loss of middle aged leadership in the Baptist denomination; large numbers of youth involved in Pentecostal and fundamentalist churches; significant numbers of migrant children in church; few Pakeha children in church. Webster and Perry's thesis of major church decline (Webster & Perry, 1989:49) into an age of secularism is not fully played out in terms of loss of a new generation. While there is gradual decline among Pakeha, it has been significantly offset by other urban phenomena into a shift to new styles of growing Christianity — Pentecostal, independent fundamentalist and ethnic. This is affirmed by Webster’s revised views: “it remains uncertain whether there is an age-effect as such” (2001:169).

Kevin Ward (2004a:2-4) analysing the debate, concludes there is both declining religious authority and privatisation of religion, yet a persistence of religious faith, though a persistence whose content is morphing,[31] with declining involvement, yet sustained religiosity. This chapter supports the persistence thesis and the morphing thesis. The indications are that until 1996, the charismatic revival prevented overall declining involvement, but that with the loss of revival from around 1989, another phase of national decline is probable, though with the expansion of ethnic churches in Auckland, may not occur in this city. However, his study of the disestablishment of rugby institutions as a parallel to the disestablishment of the church, plus the figures above for loss of children in churches and the loss of revival dynamics, leaves one with a niggle as to the future, even in Auckland ...

Fundamentalism: Secure Haven in a Chaotic World

We now examine this morphing phenomenon. Harvey Cox’s premise is that in the postmodern post-secular context, religions (whether Christianity, Hinduism, Islam, Buddhism) have all re-emerged in two forms, fundamentalism and experientialism. Both provide coherence where secularism has failed to provide a “culturally plausible response” (Cox, 1995:300-301).

Fundamentalism provides certainty in cultures that are increasingly incoherent mosaics of unconnected values, ideas and relationships. It includes claims of absolute religious truth in the face of the societal disintegration inherent in secularism. On the negative side:

In Auckland, fundamentalist groups have been increasing in numbers, providing a safe haven for those seeking a clear system of belief in a chaotic postmodern world. Noticeable among these, are imported Calvinist churches from Holland (Dutch Reformed) and South Africa, descendants of fundamentalist missionary movements in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea, reinforced by traditionalist cultural tendencies and churches planted by missionaries directly sent to Auckland by fundamentalist US denominations. The Salvation Army, Churches of Christ, a significant percentage of the Brethren movement and a handful of Baptist churches have continued to sustain their fundamentalism, partly in reaction to the charismatic movement. This, in most cases involves decline, although there is growing openness to diversity and significant Brethren chapels have moved to pastor-led post-charismatic styles.

Expanding Experiential Religion

The alternative experiential, storytelling, mystical style of religion requires less defined boundaries (i.e., works with centred sets rather than bounded sets). It can pull component truths from multiple sources, integrating and reintegrating them into new formulations. With their emphasis on the God who breaks in and on listening to the voice of that God, the charismatic movement and Pentecostalism place great emphasis on intuitive thinking. This leads to significant development of worship, music and creative arts. It also stimulates highly adaptive leadership styles — an essential element in modern urban church leadership (Hall, c1985).

Paralleling the cultural shift from rationalist anti-supernaturalism to informal supernaturalism, the religious shift appears to be from rational systematic theology and formal religion of the mainline churches to the informal supernatural religion of the charismatics and Pentecostals. Some term it a third reformation, focusing on the move from formal religion to the relational small group experience of much charismatic and Pentecostal Christianity (Neighbour, 1988; 1995). Significant differences appear in the underlying assumptions of these two movements however. Pentecostalism perceives an abrupt break with past Christian tradition. Charismatic Evangelicalism affirms the history of the church. The difference is highlighted by Smidt and leads to one of the dynamics of renewal.

Charismatic renewal seeking to renew, in many ways looks back. This ultimately diffuses its strength as a movement. Pentecostalism, emphasizing discontinuity with the past, can only look forward. It is not surprising, that 30 years after the birthing of the charismatic renewal in New Zealand, it has become diffuse and many of its beneficiaries who sought and failed to renew their older traditions, have eventually migrated into Pentecostal structures. It implies a possible future of Pentecostal growth.^[32]

Apostolic Mega-Churches

Church growth expert Wagner, speaks of the necessity of new wineskins as an outgrowth of charismatic experientialism, viewing new apostolic-led mega-churches as the probable post-denominational future (1999). These relate more to each other than to their own denominations (often being as large as their denomination). His definition of apostolic-led is problematic,[33] but identifies the essential evangelising value of these churches. I have little doubt about their expansion as a reflection on the sociology of institutionalising religion, when I travel as a participant-observer from city to city. On the other hand, while such churches provide excellent structure, affirming and marketing revival as a significant theme, I suggest that this style of church violates many aspects of revival discussed in the following chapters. The centralising of human power and control, the emphasis on success and prosperity as against brokenness, confession and servanthood that mark revival, would indicate that their growth^[34] is not necessarily a sign of ongoing revival, but of sociological change and at times of post-revival control structures.[35] Peter Wagner and the church growth school believe that such centralised growth is a sign of God’s blessing. German church growth expert, Christian Schwartz has combated this in the genesis of the natural church growth movement (1996).

: Ethnic Congregation Explosion in Auckland

Ethnic Churches: Wave of the Future

Another urban factor feeding into revival dynamics, follows the adage that the church follows population flows (Hitchcock, 1996: 26). Thus, growth in ethnic churches (see Fig. 4), will continue naturally, as the ethnic communities grow across the city. These figures (Sept. 98) are rapidly increasing. My estimate is of 500+ by 2005. The same figure from 20 years before this one, would have shown only a score of ethnic churches.

This represents the vigorous evangelical faith of most of these imported churches, which are often people from missionary churches in anti-Christian societies. I suspect analysis of numbers of churches vs. percentage of population that are migrant in Auckland would show a very close correlation. The extent of their growth, however, is limited by the size of their ethnic communities and their capacity to influence the English-speaking second generation children. Whether they are new Protestant or Catholic or Syrian Orthodox congregations, they tend to be culturally fundamentalist, in their retreat into cultural tradition. This is a survival strategy in a perceived unfriendly environment. From experience, I know that the period of responsiveness is within the first 18 months of migration, so growth may not be sustained.[36]

Mysticism and Anti-Structuralism: The Non-Church Movement

We are also seeing non-structuralist groupings of Christians across the city, who reject formal church structures and doctrinal definitions but seek to maintain a vibrant faith (those who discuss this tend to be Pakeha born in the 1950’s and 1960’s).[37] Troelsch defined mysticism as one of his three categories of Christian structures that recur throughout history (1911/1960). Ward analyses debate that shows exit from formal religion is not the end of belief (2004a: 2-3). However, Webster indicates that such non-institutional belief evolves away from orthodoxy (2001: 168).

We do not know what percentage of committed Christians are non-institutional, nor how long they can sustain their commitments without the structure of a faith community. The nearest attempt has been Alan Jamieson’s A Churchless Faith, where he indicates that 27% of 108 Evangelical and Pentecostal church leavers that he interviewed, developed an “integrated faith” outside of the church (2000: 103). Thus, while in this study, I am exploring Christianity beyond the cloisters, I cannot analyse statistically the influence of this grouping as a source of agents for transformative change. I suspect it is significant, as this group are often thinkers who have risen to societal leadership and their “emergent church” structures indicate their entrepreneurial bent.

Theologically, I am working from the presuppositions, born of some years of establishing churches based on themes from the early church in Jerusalem, that connectedness to the body is essential to sustaining faith and that connectedness requires three structural elements: small group relationships, large group celebration and effective leadership that includes significant levels of each of the five leadership gifts of Ephesians 4:11,12. Unless those who move from institutions find new institutional patterns that include each of the above, my experience is that faith is generally not sustainable long-term, nor generationally (important for families).

This search for spirituality has resulted in non-church movements seeking a return to classical spiritualities, independent of church structures. There are precursors to these on the edges of historical revivals, such as the Salvation Army and an institutionalisation of this anti-structuralism in the Brethren movement. The Navigators, Renovare movement, YWAM, Youth for Christ and Spiritual Growth Ministries are all nondenominational movements bringing small group structures, accountable leadership and theological structure to their non-establishment modus operandi.

There are voices that this is the way of the future , including discussions on emerging “Western” postmodern church structures (see http://www.opensourcetheology.net/) (Riddell, 1998; Ward, 2004a). My own work has included the formation of apostolic orders of committed communities, living incarnationally among the poor – expressed in New Zealand through Servants to Asia’s Urban Poor.

Potential Workforce of Cultural Change Agents

I have demonstrated the extent, significance, commitment and missional relevance of Evangelical, charismatic, ethnic and Pentecostal congregations within the Auckland context. The significant expansion of a committed core, supplies a potential workforce for transformation. While sociological factors have been examined, these cannot obscure what many identify as the cause of their expansion, the work of the Holy Spirit in revival and/or the preaching of the Scriptures.

But this study is not of church growth. It is a study of Evangelicalism, Pentecostalism and transformation. The second part of the question of significance needs to be the evaluation of the potential number and commitment levels of change agents in the public arena, towards the possibilities of developing a creative minority to catalyse major paradigm shifts within the culture. While deriving percentages of active churchgoers among Evangelicals and Pentecostals, one needs to remember, that those bold and gifted enough to stand in the public arena will be a minority of these, less than say 10% of the 237,000 (in 2001) active Evangelical churchgoers. Thus, there is a national pool of manpower and woman-power of perhaps 24,000 who could become publicly active in societal transformation.

These people are already active in many spheres. For many the local church consumes their energies. For others, the drumbeat of evangelism that marks the movement requires a total commitment of time and energy. As believers, they sustain a high commitment to family and to education. Perhaps, we could justify half nationally (12,000) and a third of that in Auckland (4,000), who are bold, gifted and able to be motivated into public action. This is a large force in terms of the history of societal change. (On social issues, they join an already active, theologically informed Catholic and mainline Protestant grouping of perhaps equivalent size).

What theologies will motivate and sustain these 4,000 into effective transformation and equip them theologically to utilize their technical and leadership skills? How can this prophetic nucleus be positioned to move the wider church into a transformative revival?

First, we need to examine the nature of the revival in the nation. Then, we need to extend our understanding into transformative revival.           

Go to Appendices

Click above to review some of the data underlying the graphs and calculations 

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